March Madness is upon us. Round one of the NCAA Tournament tips came out Thursday, highlighted in part by the battle in the South Region between the sixth-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels and the 11th-seeded VCU Rams.
Here are my predictions for VCU vs. North Carolina.
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels odds
Money line: VCU +124 / North Carolina -148
Spread: VCU +2.5 (-110) / North Carolina -2.5 (-110)
Total: Over 151.5 (-115) / Under 151.5 (-105)
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels pick: VCU +2.5 (-110)
VCU is 16-1 in its last 17 games with its lone loss during that stretch coming to St. Louis. Louis, which received the No. 1 seed. 9 in the Big Dance. The Rams went on to win the Atlantic 10 Tournament title with losses to Duquesne, Saint Joseph’s, and Dayton. VCU’s strength is deep, as seven players average at least 7.2 points per game. Sophomore guard Terrence Hill Jr. averages 14.4 ppg and has scored at least 13 points in nine of his last 11 outings.
The obvious problem for North Carolina is that freshman Caleb Wilson (19.8 ppg) is not on the floor. Wilson broke his left foot on February 10 and – just as he was about to return – broke his right thumb, sidelining him for the rest of the year. Therefore, head coach Hubert Davis now has only two players scoring over 9.8 ppg (Henri Veesaar at 16.7, Seth Trimble at 14.0).
VCU is 3-1 against the spread in its last four and 6-3 ATS in its last nine.
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels pick: Under 151.5 (-120)
Especially without Wilson, this isn’t the type of high-flying UNC team we’ve seen many times in the past. This version of the Tar Heels is serious on defense, giving up 71.3 points per game. VCU is right behind that door (71.5 ppg allowed). Neither side plays too fast. Carolina ranks 174th nationally in rushing yards at 70.8 possessions per game; VCU is 148th out of 71.2 places.
Under is 7-3 in North Carolina last 10. It is also 3-1 in the Rams last four games and 6-0 in the last six away from home.
