Everyone should have thought that the Qatar ExxonMobil Open final would be another chapter in the Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner.
Arthur Fils is glad it isn’t.
Jakub Mensik eliminated Sinner in the quarterfinals and Fils capitalized on that progress by defeating the Czech 6-4, 7-6(4) in the semis. The 21-year-old’s prize is a third game against Alcaraz, who surprisingly leads the head-to-head series 2-0. Alcaraz won twice on clay in 2025 – 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 at the Monte-Carlo Masters and 6-2, 6-4 in the semifinals in Barcelona.
The world No. 1 is on the full roster to start this season. His overall record of 11-0 includes the first ever Australian Open title to complete a career Grand Slam followed by Doha victories over Arthur Rinderknech, Valentin Royer, Karen Khachanov (three sets), and Andrey Rublev.
Fils missed the second half of 2025 with a back injury, but his comeback is probably going better than he expected. The Frenchman advanced to the quarterfinals in Montpellier and now finds himself in the championship match of the ATP 500 event following defeats to Mensik, Kamil Majchrzak, Quentin Halys, and Jiri Lehecka.
Unfortunately for the Fils, Alcaraz is 25-8 in ATP finals. Since February of 2023, the 22-year-old Spaniard has lost one final to someone other than Sinner or Novak Djokovic (Holger Rune last spring in Barcelona). Count on Alcaraz to lift another trophy Saturday night.
Pick: Alcaraz at 2
