Sunday’s 11-game NBA slate is headlined in part by an afternoon game on ABC between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets. It’s an important matchup for a playoff spot in the Western Conference, as the two teams are tied for fourth place with 37-23 records.
Let’s get into my Timberwolves vs. Nuggets.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets odds
Money line: Timberwolves +130 / Nuggets -155
Spread: Timberwolves +2.5 (-104) / Nuggets -2.5 (-115)
Total: Over 239.5 (-108) / Under 239.5 (-112)
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets best bet: Nuggets -2.5 (-115)
Based on at least one trend, the Nuggets should win on Sunday. They have a win-loss streak in their last nine games dating back to Feb. 4 and will go back to overtime in Oklahoma City on Friday.
The Nuggets have won all three of the past three head-to-head meetings between the two Western rivals this season. They won 127-114 at Minnesota on October 27, 123-112 at Minnesota on November 15, and 142-138 (OT) at home on Christmas. Although Minnesota is 5-1 in its last six games, it was beaten 135-108 at home by Philly last Sunday. The biggest concern for the T-Wolves is that Julius Randle is questionable due to back strain. Randle is averaging 21.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game, so his absence could be significant.
Containing Nikola Jokic in the paint is especially problematic for visitors without Randle, and Jokic is hot right now. He has scored 30 or more points in three of the last four games and just posted another triple-double against OKC on Friday (23 points, 17 rebounds and 14 assists. The three-time NBA MVP is averaging 36.0 ppg, 15.7 rpg and 12.0 apg in three games against MIN so far.
Denver is 3-1 against the spread in their last four and 3-0 ATS in their last three head-to-head games. Minnesota is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 overall and 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
