The selected experts returned for the Australian Open final between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic on Sunday night at Rod Laver Arena. A three-party panel makes predictions for another chapter of the rivalry.
(1) Carlos Alcaraz vs. 4) Novak Djokovic
Ricky: Given the unknown variables involved after what happened in the semifinals, this is one of the toughest games ever to handicap. There’s no way of knowing how either guy will fare on Sunday. Heck, even see know! After all, Djokovic is 38 years old and just played a four hour and nine minute match against Jannik Sinner that ended around 2:00 am on Friday night (Saturday morning). Alcaraz’s semifinal against Alexander Zverev lasted five hours and 27 minutes – several hours when the Spaniard suffered from a leg cramp. After two days, anything else it is possible. But as I am by force to pick a side here, I’ll roll with Djokovic. Despite his tough semi-final, the Serb played only two and a half sets combined in the fourth round and quarterfinals. That is huge in his recovery effort. In addition, he is already a ten-time Australian Open champion (10-0 in finals!) and a 24-time major champion. Yes, 11 and 25 would be nice – but it won’t change anything. The pressure is on Alcaraz, who could change the title of Aussie Open No. 1 everything. At the age of 22, he is asking to become the youngest guy to complete a career Grand Slam. This event may not be easy to handle, and there were times when we saw the stress take a toll on Alcaraz’s physical condition. It’s not a confident choice, but this feels like a good place – perhaps a place of destiny – for Djokovic. Djokovic at 4: 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, 7-6 (7).
Cheryl:. Until Friday’s matches, I might have been tempted to use the word “underwhelming” to describe this year’s Australian Open. But, as usual, the top 4 in the world managed to revive things just when we needed them. The match between Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev was very impressive. It had everything – rama, cramping, fifth set comeback. Jannik Sinner’s and Novak Djokovic’s were not so much from a quality point of view but they are equally high in the theater department. Come on. Djokovic is like 65 years old at this point. YOU ARE A MACHINE. To do what he did to Soni? A legend. So, where does that leave us heading into the finals? Under any other circumstances, it would be an easy choice for Alcaraz. The Spaniard is better than Djokovic right now and is 16 years his junior. However…I won’t do it. Choose Carlitos, that is. First, he has never been to an Australian Open final (his most successful major) AND a Career Slam is on the line. Why is this important? Because it is easy for him to let “time” defeat him a little. He also spent five and a half hours trying to beat Zverev. On the other hand, the Australian Open is Djokovic’s best chance at number 25 and the moment has NEVER reached him. I give this to the king. Djokovic at 5: 6-4, 6-7 (3), 7-5, 4-6, 7-5.
Pete (Tennis Acumen): First, Alcaraz “eliminated” Zverev in more than five hours to advance to his first Australian Open final. The length of the match brought back memories of the Nadal-Verdasco AO SF of 2009 and the endless Djokovic-Nadal AO final of 2012. Victory for the Spaniard in the final will secure the 22-year-old’s Grand Slam title. Next, Djokovic almost mirrored Federer at Wimbledon in 2019 when he dropped two match points in the final, as he almost let Sinner out of the match despite having two match points. Djokovic also matched Federer to some extent when the Swiss defeated Djokovic in the semi-finals at Roland Garros in 2011 – when the Reb’s 43-match winning streak came to an end. With this victory, Djokovic ended Sinner’s streak of 22 sets against 10 opponents and 19 match wins at the Australian Open. Djokovic went 10-0 in the Australian Open final and is looking for his 25th career major. The 38-year-old is a better hard court player, yet his ability to compete at full strength for 41 hours after a physically and emotionally draining semi-final may be too much to question. At the same time, Alcaraz will feel the pressure of trying to win a major title that has eluded him for the first time and he, too, may not be in top form on Sunday night in Melbourne due to injuries to his body during most of his semifinal. At the end of the day, the youth wins. Alcaraz at 4: 7-6 (4), 3-6, 6-4, 6-4.
