The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs continues on Sunday afternoon with the AFC matchup between the Houston Texans and the New England Patriots. Houston went on the road and beat Pittsburgh in the wild card round. New England, the AFC East champion, took care of the Chargers at home.
Let’s get into my predictions for the Texans vs. Patriots.
Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots odds
Money line: Texans +145 / Patriots -175
Spread: Texans +3 (+100) / Patriots -3 (-120)
Total: Over 40.5 (-115) / Under 40.5 (-105)
Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots best bet #1: Under 40.5 (-105)
To the surprise of no one, both defenses were impressive in the first round. The Texans held the Steelers to just six points; the Patriots held the Bolts to just a field goal. Houston forced two turnovers and had four sacks. New England forced one turnover, caused two turnovers on downs, and recorded sacks. The dominant performance of the Texans defense is nothing new. In the regular season, they ranked No. 1 in the league in total defense, No. 2 in scoring, No. 6 against the pass, No. 3 against the offense and No. 6 in sacks.
The problem for the visitors, of course, is that their offense is a big question mark. Make no mistake about their 30 points on Monday – two of their TDs were scored on defense. CJ Stroud and the rest of the offense (except Woody Marks) were brutal – especially in the passing game. They will now be without WR1 Nico Collins due to a concussion. The Pats offense also struggled last weekend, producing just 16 points. QB Drake Maye was great in the regular season, but this is his second playoff game and the first was far from impressive. Now he has to contend with the best defense in the entire NFL.
Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots best player prop bet: Woody Marks Over 51.5 rushing yards (-110)
Going back to the regular season, Marks has gained at least 64 rushing yards in five of his last seven contests. The two exceptions are easily explained. One was the blowout of the Cardinals (40-20) so that Marks had only seven carts; the other was the regular season finale against the Colts that turned into a meaningless game where it became apparent almost immediately that the Texans’ AFC South hopes were over. The bottom line is that Marks remains productive whenever his workload is at its peak. He was outstanding against the Steelers in the first round, rushing 19 times for 112 yards and a touchdown.
The Texans game plan for this matchup should be the same: dominate on defense and run the ball offensively. Although the Patriots’ defense is solid, they gave up 101.7 yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry during the regular season.
