Amid huge expectations in front of the home crowd, Joao Fonseca lost in the first round of the Rio Open last season.
The Brazilian had an excuse. He was coming off the biggest moment of his career, having captured his first ATP title in Buenos Aires a few days earlier. With little rest, Fonseca promptly fell in Rio de Janeiro to Alexandre Muller in straight sets.
Fonseca will look to improve this week, and this time he is well rested. The 19-year-old was defeated in the Buenos Aires boxing round by Alejandro Tabilo, so he has not appeared in court since last Wednesday. Yes, the bad news is that Fonseca is short on confidence. The world number 38 is yet to win a single match in 2026, losing to Eliot Spizzirri in the first round of the Australian Open.
Fonseca’s opening game of the week will be against fellow Brazilian, Thiago Monteiro, on Tuesday. Monteiro has been in poor form, which is why he registers outside the top 200 in the world (currently 208). However, the 31-year-old did well to qualify for the weekend’s top points – securing his place with wins over Adolfo Daniel Vallejo and Dusan Lajovic.
Meeting a countryman is not a bad thing for Fonseca. The crowd support may not be as uncontrollable as it could be, but it also may not feel like the entire weight of the country is on his shoulders. Although he’s far short of the best these days, Fonseca should be able to get past his worst opponent.
Pick: Fonseca at 2
