Selection Sunday is upon us. But first there are a few more conference contests to be decided. This afternoon’s schedule is dominated by the Big Ten Tournament final between the Purdue Boilermakers and the Michigan Wolverines.
Here are my predictions for Purdue vs. Michigan.
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan Wolverines odds
Money line: Purdue +220 / Michigan -275
Spread: Purdue +6.5 (-112) / Michigan -6.5 (-108)
Total: Over 151.5 (-105) / Under 151.5 (-120)
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan Wolverines pick: Purdue +6.5 (-112)
Purdue was the preseason No. 1 team in the nation and still has time to live up to the hype. The Boilermakers are hot at the right time, with a 4-1 record in their last five games and wins in the Big Ten Tournament over Northwestern by 13 points, 11-ranked Nebraska by 16, and UCLA by seven. Oscar Cluff tripled in three straight double-doubles and had 17 points and 14 rebounds in the semifinals.
The Wolverines are also a great team, but they weren’t crushing people. UM beat Wisconsin 68-65 at the buzzer on Saturday thanks to a three-pointer by Yaxel Lendeborg. Head coach Dusty May’s team beat Ohio State 71-67 in the quarterfinals. It has won by more than 10 points just once in its last seven games
Michigan is 0-4 against the spread in its last four and 1-6 ATS in its last seven.
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan Wolverines pick: Under 151.5 (-120)
If Purdue can play this game on its own terms, it should lead to both undercover coverage and undercover coverage. They want to make this a little grind, which is part of the court. Coach Matt Painter’s team is one of the slowest in the nation, ranking 335th out of 365 Division I programs in pace of play (67.0 possessions per game).
Purdue is allowing just 70.2 points per game this season. It held its three Big Ten Tournament opponents to 68, 58, and 66 points. It’s also worth noting that the Boilermakers are No. 34 in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. Meanwhile, Michigan may be the best defensive team in all of college basketball. It is the No. 1 nationally in field goal percentage and has allowed just one of its last seven opponents to surpass the 70-point mark.
The under is 6-1 in UM’s last seven games and 2-0 in Wisconsin’s last two games.
