The Final Four on Saturday begins with the UConn Huskies going up against the Illinois Fighting Illini. UConn, the No. 1 seed 2, passed through the Eastern Region with an incredibly powerful force. Illinois, No. 3 seed, did a typical South Region upset when the Fighting Illini faced No. 11 VCU in the second round and then-No. 9 Iowa in the Elite Eight.
Tipoff at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana is set for 6:09 pm ET on TBS. Here are my predictions for UConn vs. Illinois.
Conn Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini odds
Money line: Conn +115 / Illinois -135
Spread: Conn +2 (-115) / Illinois -2 (-105)
Total: Over 139.5 (-112) / Under 139.5 (-108)
Conn Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini best bet #1: Conn +2 (-115)
UConn has a lot of experience. That’s no doubt part of the reason why coach Dan Hurley’s team survived tough games against Michigan State and Duke in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, respectively. The senior leadership should continue to serve the Huskies well this weekend. Among the UConn stars are senior center Tarris Reed Jr., senior forward Alex Karaban, and junior Silas Demary Jr. and Solo Ball. Karban has won two national titles; Football was also in the team that won it all in 2024.
This is a rematch of the regular season contest on November 28 at Madison Square Garden, where UConn won 74-61. There’s no denying that Illinois is playing better basketball now than it was then, but chances are it’s going to be at least a 15-point turnaround. That sounds like a stretch. The Huskies are 5-2 against the spread in seven postseason contests dating back to the Big East Tournament. They are also 2-0 ATS in their last two games against the Fighting Illini dating back to March of 2024.
Conn Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini best bet #2: Under 139.5 (-108)
Two star defenses will be on display and these are two teams that like to play a little bit. In other words, the recipe is perfect for a low score story. The Huskies excel at preventing opponents from getting into transition. Illinois won’t mind that, because it has no interest in speeding up its offensive tempo. The half-court offense will be the norm in this game. The two teams are tied for 300th out of 365 Division I games with 68.0 plays per game. They also play great defense in those court sets. Both rank among the top 40 in the country in three-point defense – the Huskies at 39.7 percent and the Illini at 31.1 percent. Each side also ranks in the top 75 nationally in defensive rebounding percentage. In addition, Illinois is No. 1 in the nation in keeping opponents away from the foul line.
The Huskies have given up more than 63 points just twice in their last seven contests; the Illini have held their last three opponents under 60 points. Under is 7-4 in UConn’s last 11, 3-0 in Illinois’ last three, and 2-0 in the last two head-to-head matchups.
