It will be No. 1 vs. 2 seed when the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots collide in the AFC Championship Sunday afternoon in Denver. But this won’t be your typical tilt between the top two seeds. In fact, without the two cities directly involved this would be ugly, low, and borderline unsightly. No matter where it is, the stakes won’t be as high for a place in Super Bowl LX on the line.
Let’s get into my Patriots vs. Broncos.
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos odds
Money line: Patriots -235 / Broncos +194
Spread: Patriots -4.5 (-108) / Broncos +4.5 (-112)
Total: Over 42.5 (-110) / Under 42.5 (-110)
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos best bet #1: Patriots -4.5 (-108)
Euphoria over their divisional victory over the Bills didn’t last long for the Broncos, as head coach Sean Payton surprisingly announced at the postgame press conference that starting quarterback Bo Nix would miss the remainder of the playoffs with a broken ankle he suffered on the second-to-last play of the game. Enter Jarrett Stidham. Out of Denver’s Super Bowl hopes? Not really, but Stidham certainly doesn’t inspire any confidence. In his six-year NFL career, the Auburn product has played in just 20 games and has as many interceptions as touchdown passes (eight each). He passed with less than 60 percent. Stidham will need a lot of help in the running game, but that’s part of a Broncos offense that has struggled since JK Dobbins went down with a foot injury in Week 10. Dobbins returned to limited practice earlier this week, but is not expected to play.
To add insult to injury, the home team has to deal with New England’s defense. In the regular season the Patriots were No. 8 in total defense, No. 4 in scoring defense, and 6 against the run. They held the Chargers to just three points in the wild card round and forced five Texans turnovers last weekend. With reigning MVP Drake Maye running the game on the other side of the ball, coach Mike Vrabel’s squad is very well organized. It’s hard to back Denver – even against the spread – when the QB matchup is Stdham vs. Alas.
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos best player prop bet: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 49.5 rushing yards (-110)
Stevenson splits time with TreVeyon Henderson in New England’s backfield, but Stevenson has more experience than the rookie — so it’s no surprise that the fifth-year veteran has gotten a lot of work in these contests. You’re free, too. Through two contests, Stevenson has 33 touchdowns (26 carries) for 209 yards from scrimmage; Henderson has 21 touches (21 carries) for 59 total yards.
On the ground, Stevenson had 53 yards against the Chargers and 60 against the Texans. That was preceded by a 131-yard burst against Miami in the regular season finale. Especially if New England takes an early lead and can hang on to it, the former Oklahoma standout should get plenty of carries — and plenty of yards.
