The College Football Playoff quarterfinals continue on New Year’s Day with a three-game package, starting with the Orange Bowl between No. 5 Oregon Ducks and the No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders. Oregon enters this playoff after dropping a 50-burger to James Madison in the first round, while Texas Tech is still riding high following its Big 12 championship — stopping what I consider to be the best matchup on Thursday’s card. Be sure to kick off that New Year’s early, as CFP action begins at noon ET on ESPN.
Let’s get into my picks for Oregon vs. Texas Tech.
Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders odds
Cash line: Oregon -130 / Texas Tech +110
Spread: Oregon -2.5 (-108) / Texas Tech +2.5 (-112)
Total: Over 51.5 (-112) / Under 51.5 (-108)
Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders best bet #1: Oregon 1H ML (-125)
This matchup has the potential to be exciting in the late game and could go either way from a full game perspective. However, I have a strong opinion about Oregon taking the lead in travel time despite playing this game at noon ET on the east coast with a 9:00 am PT body clock. Texas Tech certainly has a strong analytical profile, but I question whether the Red Raiders have really been evaluated in the way they will face the Ducks on Thursday. Texas Tech comes into this game as the No. 65 ranked power of schedule per Sagarin, while Oregon’s current 12-1 record is against a top-15 power of schedule, and its only loss was to the undefeated, top-ranked Indiana Hoosiers.
The Red Raiders are very likable as an underdog given how strong their defense is, but I would argue that they haven’t played against an offense – especially a passing attack – as strong as Oregon’s. Sitting second in PFF’s passer rating, and in the top four in rushing yards and NFL passer rating, Oregon QB Dante Moore is the most successful passer the Red Raiders will have seen at any point this year. Likewise, Oregon’s offensive line is the best blocking unit Tech will face. The Ducks sit atop the nation in PFF pass blocking, while also ranking in the top 15 in sacks and tackles for loss and top 20 in PFF interception and non-trash yards. This unit is built to withstand Texas Tech’s front pressure, and should be able to buy Moore enough time in the pocket to hit downfield throws against the value of being the weakest part of the Red Raider defense – the secondary.
It’s worth mentioning that – although the sample size is small in the 12-team playoff format – no first-round team won their quarterfinal game last year. Neither of them led at halftime, either. The month-long layoff reveals the rustiness of the top four teams in the bracket, as they will face teams that have played in the past week and a half. I expect Oregon to take advantage of that early in this game, not only because the Ducks already have a playoff game in their pocket, but also because head coach Dan Lanning and his program have been to the CFP quarterfinals before. Joey McGuire and Texas Tech have never been in this position before, and given the long layoff between the Big 12 title game and the CFP, I’d imagine the Red Raiders suffer more early game jitters than the Ducks.
Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders best player betting: Dante Moore Over 231.5 passing yards (-115)
This number sounds simple considering how good Moore and Oregon’s offense has been this year. The Ducks finished the regular season in the top 15 in both PPA in passing and completion rate, while Moore threw for more than 3,000 yards and finished in the top three in completion percentage and top 15 in yards per attempt. He’s surpassed that number in eight of 12 FBS matchups this year, and given how strong Texas Tech’s front seven is, Moore will likely be counted on to exploit the Red Raider secondary and move the Ducks down the field.
As mentioned before, Moore is the best quarterback Tech will see at any point this season. I would also argue that Jalon Daniels of Kansas and Sam Leavitt of Arizona State are the two best pass rushers the Red Raiders have seen thus far, and both surpass this number with room to spare.
