The Tulane Green Wave will hit the road in Oxford, Mississippi to play the Ole Miss Rebels for the second time this season, but this time in the first round of the College Football Playoff. The only difference is that Lane Kiffin won’t be there to coach Ole Miss. Kickoff will be Saturday at 3:30 pm ET on TNT.
Here are my favorite bets for this first round matchup.
Tulane Green Wave vs. Ole Miss Rebels opportunities
Money line: Tulane +1100 / Ole Miss -2500
Spread: Tulane +17.5 (-118) / Ole Miss -17.5 (-104)
Total: Over 56.5 (-112) / Under 56.5 (-108)
Tulane Green Wave vs. Ole Miss Rebels best bet #1: Ole Miss -17.5 (-104)
Tulane earned a seat at the CFP table with a statement win over North Texas in the AAC tournament. Not to take anything away from the Green Wave, but good luck throughout that game. Several passes bounced off the hands of UNT receivers into the hands of Tulane defenders, and the Mean Green even fumbled a touchdown that fell into the hands of a Tulane receiver for the first time. Needless to say, Ole Miss is unlikely to turn the ball over five times at home against this Tulane defense.
Tulane’s defensive metrics aren’t stellar by any means. The Green Wave are 67th in PPA per play, 101st in success rate, and 89th in points allowed per quality drive as of Week 9 – and Ole Miss could absolutely use that. It ranked 14th, 52nd, and 21st in those metrics, respectively — against better competition, too. After all, the Rebels have already revealed the talent gap in this game once when they beat the Green Wave 45-10 and beat them 548 to 282. Why will that change now that Tulane coach Jon Sumrall has one foot out the door with Ole Miss looking to prove his success over Kiffin. At -17.5, it’s a tougher pill to swallow than -16.5 or -17 – but it’s Ole Miss or nothing here.
Tulane Green Wave vs. Ole Miss Rebels best bet #2: Trinidad Chambliss Over 272.5 passing yards (-114)
Tulane’s second weakest defense is why I like North Texas so much in the AAC title game. Obviously that didn’t pan out, but the same handicap applies here. The Green Wave are 98th in PPA per pass and 108th in touchdown pass PPA since the end of October, which is part of the reason why they are outside the top 75 in third down conversion rate allowed this season. QB Trinidad Chambliss should be able to lead the Rebels up and down the field against this defense again after throwing for 307 yards on just 27 attempts in September – in what was just his second start at the FBS level.
The expected nature of the explosion is definitely a concern here, but Chambliss has shown that he is a low risk. He ranks in the top 20 in punt return rate and yards per attempt, sixth nationally in PFF’s passer rating on throws of at least 20 yards and fifth in adjusted percentage on those deep passes. Not to mention Ole Miss has three receivers in the top 15 when it comes to yards per reception. Considering Tulane is 128th in allowing passes of at least 20 yards, I don’t see how the Green Wave can stop Chambliss.
