The College Football Playoff will conclude with the National Championship between the Miami Hurricanes and Indiana Hoosiers on Monday night. Although the Hurricanes were able to have the opportunity to play at home, they are still huge underdogs as the No. 10 going up against the top-ranked Hoosiers.
Let’s get into my picks for Miami vs. Indiana.
Miami Hurricanes vs. Indiana Hoosiers odds
Cash line: Miami +320 / Indiana -260
Spread: Miami +7.5 (-106) / Indiana -7.5 (-114)
Total: Over 47.5 (-110) / Under 47.5 (-110)
Miami Hurricanes vs. Indiana Hoosiers best bet #1: Indiana -7.5 (-114)
Indiana simply destroys the opposition. It knocked off Alabama 38-3 in the quarterfinals and crushed Oregon 56-22 in the semifinals, which was not even as competitive as the 34-point line shows. Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy and didn’t slow down for CFP. Through two starts he has eight touchdown passes and zero interceptions. Don’t forget about the Hoosiers’ running game, either. Roman Hemby has 1,060 yards and seven touchdowns; Kaelon Black has 961 yards and 10 TDs. On the other side of the ball, head coach Curt Cignetti’s defense ranks third nationally in rushing yards allowed and second in opponents’ EPA per rush.
Miami has gotten hot at the right time, but this is a team that wasn’t even expected to be in the College Football Playoff when the draft picks began. Despite taking regular-season losses to Louisville and SMU, the Hurricanes grabbed a spot in the field of 12 ahead of Notre Dame. Can they finish their dream on Monday? If so, they’ll have to do without Elijah Lofton after the tight end’s performance against Ole Miss. Damari Brown, perhaps the team’s best defensive back, is questionable after missing the semifinals. Fellow DB Xavier Lucas was suspended for the first half of the championship game due to a penalty directed at the Fiesta Bowl.
Miami Hurricanes vs. Indiana Hoosiers leading player prop bets: Malachi Toney Over 57.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Hoosiers’ defense is outstanding, but could be somewhat vulnerable in the secondary. As of Week 9 of the regular season, Indiana is outside the top 90 in passing PPA and 55th in passing success rate allowed. The unit is also outside the top 100 in passing yards allowed since the end of October.
Perhaps most importantly, the game’s script probably requires more passes for the Hurricanes – whether they like it or not. Chances are they will be trailing from start to finish. If so, Carson Beck will have to dish it out early and often. Toney enters with 99 catches for 1,089 yards and nine touchdowns. He has accumulated at least 81 yards in three of the last five games, including performances of 126 and 146 yards during that stretch.
