Atp Tour

Miami Open tennis picks and predictions: Alcaraz vs. Korda

Andrew Patron/Delray Beach Open

The early rounds of major events can sometimes be a piece of cake for top players, but there is no time for Carlos Alcaraz to ease into the Miami Open.

In his opening match, the world number 1 went up against Joao Fonseca on Friday night. What angered the Brazilian crowd was that Alcaraz passed the test with a 6-4, 6-4 victory. The 22-year-old’s prize is a third-round match against Sebastian Korda on Sunday.

Korda may not generate the kind of buzz that Fonseca does, but the 36th-ranked American is quietly going about his business and playing very well right now. He lifted the Delray Beach trophy last month and began his campaign in Miami with a 6-0, 6-3 victory over Camilo Ugo Carabelli.

As was the case against Fonseca, Alcaraz knows what his dangerous opponent brings to the table. They have met five times in the past, with Alcaraz leading the head-to-head series 4-1. Korda pulled off a three-set upset at the 2022 Monte-Carlo Masters, but Alcaraz has won three in a row — most recently with a 6-4, 7-6 (5), 6-3 decision at the 2024 French Open.

Carlos AlcarazCarlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz is looking to bounce back from his Indian Wells semi-final loss to Daniil Medvedev and finally defend his second Miami title and first since 2022. There is still a long way to go, before the Spaniard starts thinking about the trophy – but the early comeback against Fonseca was encouraging. Friday’s result improved Alcaraz’s 2026 record to 17-1, highlighted by wins at the Australian Open and the Doha ATP 500.

While Korda has the physical tools to beat the world’s best, he looks in disbelief when guys like Alcaraz – and in years past Rafael Nadal – are on the other side of the net. There are exceptions (like their 2022 Monte-Carlo game), but the inspired Alcaraz probably won’t let that happen in Miami.

Pick: Alcaraz at 2

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