Three Americans advanced to the semifinals in Brisbane, with the only exception being No. 1 seed Daniil Medvedev. Saturday’s show features Medvedev vs. Alex Michelsen and Brandon Nakashima vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic.
(1) Daniil Medvedev vs. Alex Michelsen
Medvedev ended his two-year title drought by lifting the Almaty trophy this past fall. As the only player left at the Brisbane International, he is the favorite to take another ATP title this weekend. The 13th-ranked Russian started to look like a regular at the end of last year and has picked up where he left off with wins this week over Marton Fucsovics, Frances Tiafoe, and Kamil Majchrzak – dropping one set to Majchrzak in the tiebreaker along the way.
Next up for Medvedev on Saturday is a semi-final against Michelsen, who trails the head-to-head series 2-0. Medvedev won his first retirement at the 2025 Indian Wells Masters before cruising 6-4, 6-3 on the grass courts of Halle. The fast hard court offers better conditions for Medvedev than those two previous venues, so this is a tough test for Michelsen even though the 21-year-old American is also in strong form.
Pick: Medvedev at 2
Aleksandar Kovacevic vs. Brandon Nakashima
It will be an American affair when Nakashima and Kovacevic play for the first time in their careers on Saturday. It was an impressive week for Nakashima, who earned his place in the last four by beating Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Quentin Halys, and Raphael Collignon in straight sets. Kovacevic took an impressive approach, getting past Nick Kyrgios 6-3, 6-4 before overcoming Cameron Norrie and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in three thrilling sets.
While Kovacevic is no stranger to the major stages, Nakashima has more experience at Grand Slams and the business end of smaller tournaments. The 23-year-old is the clear favorite on paper, too, given that he is ranked 33rd out of 58 of his opponents and has won 130 main tour matches throughout his career compared to the 32-year-old Kovacevic. Kovacevic may be more creative, but Nakashima will likely be a rock solid for his compatriot.
Pick: Nakashima at 2
