The remaining places for the fourth round at the Indian Wells Masters will be awarded on Monday, when Taylor Fritz faces fellow American Alex Michelsen. Daniil Medvedev continues his title quest against Sebastian Baez.
Alex Michelsen vs. (7) Taylor Fritz
The BNP Paribas Open is the perfect setting for this tournament featuring California natives. The crowd will no doubt be in awe of the second showdown between Fritz and Michelsen. Their only meeting of the year came on the red clay of Geneva in 2024, with Michelsen winning 6-4, 4-6, 7-5.
You have to think Fritz will get his revenge in Indian Wells. This has always been a favorite tournament for the 28-year-old, which he won in 2022 after reaching the semi-finals in 2021. Fritz opened with a 6-3, 6-7(8), 6-1 win over Jake Fearnley on Saturday, but was the dominant player from start to finish despite dropping the second set in shocking fashion. Michelsen will come off a tough three-set match against Ugo Humbert on Saturday night – the 21-year-old survived 7-5, 6-7 (5), 7-6 (6) after two hours and 46 minutes. He followed up that result with a 6-3, 6-4 win over Daniel Meria in the qualifiers. Michelsen is playing well, but Fritz is very rested and looks like a legitimate contender to reach at least the semis again at Tennis Paradise.
Pick: Fritz at 2
(11) Daniil Medvedev vs. Sebastian Baez
Medvedev took the circuitous route from Dubai to Indian Wells – and he had no choice. Amid the ongoing war in the Middle East, his travels included a seven-hour drive to Oman and multiple flights from Istanbul to Palm Springs. Either way, there seems to be nothing stopping Medvedev. The 11th-ranked Russian is 14-3 this season with two titles (including Dubai), and he beat Alejandro Tabilo 6-4, 6-2 in his Indian Wells opener on Saturday night.
Next up for the 29-year-old on Monday is a second meeting with Baez, who lost their first meeting 6-2, 6-2, 7-6(6) at the 2023 US Open. This is just the match between two of the hottest players on the tour, as Baez already has 14 wins at the ATP level in 2026. The 53rd-ranked Argentine advanced over the two days by knocking out Chun-Hsin Tseng and Jiri Lehecka in straight sets. The conditions in this event aren’t bad for Baez, but he still can’t be trusted on any surface other than true clay.
Pick: Medvedev at 2
