After a break of more than one year, two of the hottest players on tour will finally renew their rivalry when Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev clash in the semifinals of the BNP Paribas Open on Saturday.
They have faced each other eight times – but none since 2024. Alcaraz leads the head-to-head series 6-2 and has beaten Medvedev four times in a row since his last loss in the 2023 US Open semifinals. They also doubled up at the Indian Wells Masters, with the Spaniards cruising 6-3, 6-2 in 2023 and 7-6 (5), 6-1 in 2024 – both times in the final.
The relative drought in their matchups can be attributed to Medvedev’s failure to advance in corporate tournaments, but now he’s turning the whole place around in a big way. The 29-year-old, who expires in 2025, included a title in Almaty and has lifted two trophies this season (Brisbane and Dubai). Medvedev is 17-3 in his 2026 campaign following Indian Wells defeats to Alejandro Tabilo, Sebastian Baez, Alex Michelsen, and Jack Draper – all in easy straight sets.
Only one man is ahead of Medvedev in the race to the Nitto ATP Finals. That man, of course, is Alcaraz. The world No. 1 is 16-0 this season with titles at the Australian Open and Doha ATP 500 to go along with wins this weekend over Grigor Dimitrov, Arthur Rinderknech, Casper Ruud, and Cameron Norrie. Alcaraz’s quality was outstanding throughout – even when Rinderknech took a set in the third round.
Although Medvedev has found out how to play in the difficult court conditions of Tennis Paradise, their previous meetings in this tournament – and everywhere – prove that it is a game that favors Alcaraz. It is also worth noting that Medvedev has not defeated Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner since the summer of 2024 at Wimbledon.
It’s safe to say that Russian is backbut is he back from hitting one of the world’s top two players on a pitch that is completely inappropriate for his game? Probably not.
Pick: Alcaraz at 2
