Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev will be playing for the 16th time in their career when they fight for the BNP Paribas Open title on Sunday afternoon.
The head-to-head series could not be closer, as Sinner held an 8-7 advantage. Of course, that doesn’t tell the real story. The Italian once trailed 6-0 but has won eight of his last nine matches since the fall of 2023 – which is when Sinner first became his current version. They haven’t faced each other since 2024, when they split five setters at the Australian Open and Wimbledon to match the other four Sinners.
Now in 2026, it is Medvedev who is trying to become his old self. The Russian won the US Open title in 2021 on his way to the world No. 1 ranking, but dropped to 18th in the rankings last September. However, it is safe to say that Medvedev is on the way back. The 29-year-old is 18-3 this season with titles in Brisbane and Dubai; how he finds himself in the Indian Wells final three thanks to straight wins over Alejandro Tabilo, Sebastian Baez, Alex Michelsen, Jack Draper, and Carlos Alcaraz.
Having finished second in Alcaraz, Medvedev is seeking his first victory at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden. The sinner does the same. Actually, the second-ranked Italian is entering the final for the first time following straight defeats to Dalibor Svrcina, Denis Shapovalov, Joao Fonseca, Learner Tien, and Alexander Zverev.
Medvedev figures to be Sinner’s toughest test of the two days – even tougher than what Fonseca brought to the table in a two-set tiebreak.
“If I was able to maintain the level I had throughout the tournament and maybe raise it, I will get my chances,” said Medvedev.
Country number 11 is wrong. If he can beat Alcaraz, he can beat Sinner – no question about that. The question is if Soni should make the red line for two sets and get out of the heat before this match becomes a long distance. The high in Palm Springs is 97 degrees, but that’s a lot better than the steady forecast for 100s next week and the humidity will be zero. Circumstances should not be the deciding factor. It’s true that Sinner has had some heat-related issues in the past, but this is a guy who has won four Grand Slam titles. You don’t win four slams without being able to withstand some physical adversity.
This should be fun, but it’s also another Sinner-Medvedev matchup that could go the way of the favorite.
Choose: Sinner in 3
