Selection Sunday Eve offers the biggest slate of college basketball. It’s headlined by the Big 12 Tournament Championship game between the Houston Cougars and Arizona Wildcats, and tipoff is set for 6:00 pm ET on ESPN in Kansas City. These are the top two seeds in arguably the best conference in basketball.
Here are my predictions for Houston vs. Arizona.
Houston Cougars vs. Arizona Wildcats odds
Money line: Houston +120 / Arizona -142
Spread: Houston +1.5 (-102) / Arizona -1.5 (-118)
Total: Over 138.5 (-112) / Under 138.5 (-108)
Houston Cougars vs. Arizona Wildcats pick: Arizona -1.5 (-118)
Arizona had to put up a strong effort in the Big 12 semifinals on Friday, battling Iowa State with a buzzer-beater before Houston upset Kansas. However, that may not be the deciding factor in this contest. What might be more telling is what happened between these two teams in the only regular season matchup, which Arizona won 73-66 on February 21. Sure, the Wildcats had the home court advantage – but they also had the disadvantage of being without freshman star Koa Peat. All things considered, it’s a very encouraging result for the ‘Cats.
With the Cougars looking good on Friday, rolling over Kansas isn’t something the Wildcats haven’t done. Arizona beat KU 84-61 on February 28. Kansas is 3-5 in its last eight games, and Iowa State is an amazing basketball team – so Houston didn’t look like Arizona in the semis.
‘Zona is 31-2 and ranked No. 2 in the country. The Wildcats’ current eight-game winning streak includes five victories over top-25 opponents. Meanwhile, Houston is 2-8 against the spread in its last 10.
Houston Cougars vs. Arizona Wildcats pick: Under 138.5 (-108)
These are two outstanding defensive teams. Houston is second in the nation in scoring defense at 62.4 points per game allowed. The Cougars are 11th in the nation in opponent field goal percentage (39.8). Arizona is giving up 68.6 ppg and is fourth in defensive shooting percentage (39.0). The Wildcats are third in defensive efficiency, while the Cougars are fifth (per KenPom).
Neither team is really pushing the pace. In fact, Houston is one of the slowest teams in the country. It ranks 325th out of 325 D1 teams in possessions per game at 67.2. Arizona ranks just outside the top 50 in that department at 73.3 per game. The Cougars have held five of their past six opponents to no more than 60 points; The Wildcats have given up 61 points or fewer in three of their last five.
Under is 10-3 in Houston’s last 13 and 6-3 in Arizona’s last nine.
