Frances Tiafoe and Alexei Popyrin will meet for the third time in their careers when they square off in the quarterfinals of the US Men’s Clay Court Championship on Friday night. They split their previous two meetings; Tiafoe cruised to a 6-4, 7-6(3), 2-6, 6-3 victory at the 2024 US Open before Popyrin won 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 at the Monte-Carlo Masters last spring.
As Tiafoe can attest, the conditions in Houston are not exactly the same as those you’ll find on the crushed brick of Monte-Carlo. Americans tend to be better at River Oaks Country Club than in Europe, and Tiafoe is no exception. World No. 18 is an amazing 14-6 career in this tournament with one title and two runners-up. He returned to another quarterfinal after defeating Rinky Hijikata 6-4, 3-6, 6-2 on Thursday.
Popyrin earned his place in the last eight with three-set wins over Patrick Kypson and Alex Michelsen. To say that’s a much-needed result for the 45th-ranked Aussie would be a huge understatement. Before arriving in Houston, Popyrin was 2-8 this season and 2-13 in his last 15 matches leading up to the 2025 US Open.
Clay is the only reason the world No. 45 has even a remote chance in this matchup. Given how well Tiafoe is playing in Houston, however, the surface shouldn’t be a limiting factor for Tiafoe’s potential in current form.
Pick: Tiafoe at 2
