Every NHL Playoffs team ranked by their Stanley Cup chances

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Every NHL Playoffs team ranked by their Stanley Cup chances

The Stanley Cup Playoffs are upon us, and the close to the 2024-25 season figures to be brimming with emotion. Is this Alex Ovechkin’s last chance to win a cup? Canada has roared back with six of its eight teams in the playoffs. Is Dallas a hockey town now?

It’s a fascinating clash of styles, as the NHL has never had so many varieties of hockey philosophy and varying strategies as right now. With 16 teams in the playoffs today we rank their chances of making a run all the way to the end to hoist Lord Stanley’s cup.

No. 1: Washington Capitals

All the focus has been on Alex Ovechkin’s chase of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal scoring record, and that’s overshadowed the fact that the Capitals are the most complete hockey team in the NHL this season. Primed to make a deep playoff run and push for the cup, the Caps have managed to stay atop the brutal Metropolitan Division all season long while posting a league-best 3.63 goals-per-game in 2024-25.

Ovi naturally gets all the attention, but the heart of this team has been 24-year-old Aliksei Protas, who broke out to become Washington’s best all-around player. Protas leads the team with an astonishing +40 when on the ice. His stellar feeling for the game, paired with elite puck movement has resulted in a 15.7% on-ice shooting percentage for the Caps when he’s playing — this leads the team’s Top 6 forwards by a large margin.

Washington also has that x-factor, trying to win one more cup before Ovechkin retires following the 2025-26 season. We’ve fallen into the trap before of thinking the Caps have what it takes after monster regular seasons, but this year they’re well rounded enough (and deep enough) to actually do it.

No. 2: Winnipeg Jets

The Jets took a big step forward in 2024-25, their first under coach Scott Arniel. Instead of taking a step back and licking their wounds after a crushing playoff series loss to the Avalanche last year, they’ve surged on the back of incredible defense and offensive efficiency.

Winnipeg’s big ace in the playoffs is goalie Connor Hellebuyck, who led the NHL this season in basically every key category: Save percentage, GAA, Shutouts, Wins — he did it all, and he’s unquestionably the best netminder these playoffs.

Meanwhile the forwards are all about efficient play. Look at Mark Scheifele, for example. He may have only taken 180 shots this season, but he converted an astonishing 21.7 percent to score 39 goals this season. This is an emblematic performance of how the Jets like to play hockey: They control the back end, and don’t waste energy offensively.

This is a great team with the potential to win the cup.

No. 3: Dallas Stars

The Stars were already excellent — then they added Miko Rantanen at the trade deadline. The deal has proven massive dividends for Dallas already and if this team was a touch more consistent and didn’t drop nonsensical games to bad competition at times, they’d be the favorites to win the cup this year.

There’s so much to like about this team beyond Rantanen. The steady leadership of Matt Duchene, the youth in Wyatt Johnson, the all-around excellence of Jason Robertson — there’s reason to be bullish about this team.

If you’re going to nitpick there are some slight worries here though. The Stars have a tendency to play down to their competition too often. We’ve yet to really see them take control of games and dominate equally-talented opponents, losing close games to the likes of the Avalanche, Jets, and Kings — all of whom they could see in the playoffs.

No. 4: Las Vegas Golden Knights

I know this feels too low for the Knights. As I look at this list it makes me feel very uneasy about putting Vegas in 4th. That said, I just can’t shake the fact that this team really feels like one that is going to make a exit far too early in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

So much of how far this team can go depends on Jack Eichel. He certainly has the ability to put Vegas on his back, but it remains to be seen if he can extend his stunning 2024-25 performance into the playoffs. When you couple this with less-than-stellar goaltending and a very bad penalty kill unit, there are some very real worries when it comes to grinding out long series against the likes of the Jets.

All that said, the biggest benefit the Golden Knights have is a possibility for cannibalization. They’re on the softer side of the Western Conference playoffs, and there’s a chance the Stars and Jets could burn each other out and become easy pickings in the Western Conference Finals, similarly to how the Panthers rolled through the Rangers in the 2023-24 season.

No. 5: Toronto Maple Leafs

Is this the year Toronto puts it all together?! Maybe, but probably not. I know Leafs fans will bristle at the suggestion this isn’t a cup-caliber team, but I think their strong finish to the season was more a product of Florida and Tampa having injury issues, rather than individual brilliance from Toronto.

The story of the Leafs this season has been that their either win big, or lose big. There’s not really an in between. I don’t love that when it comes to playoff series that are so much about momentum, and steady play. Despite all this I have to put them in 5th purely because of the potential this team can reach. If Toronto is on its game they have the talent to not just beat anyone, but dominate — it just remains to be seen whether they have the fortitude needed to do it night-in, night-out against some of the best teams in the East.

I wish Toronto did a little more at the trade deadline. Their acquisitions of Scott Laughton and Brandon Carlo were solid, much-needed moves — but lacked a marquee player to anchor a playoff push.

No. 6: Colorado Avalanche

The Avs are so much fun this season. I think it’s awesome that this organization went from the brink of soul searching after trading Mikko Rantanen and actually became a better all-around team as a result.

There’s a fire this Colorado team has that past iterations have lacked, even though all their success. I’m not sleeping on this being a team that could shock a lot of higher-regarded organizations and stun some people.

Nathan McKinnon and Cale Makar are obviously beasts — however, the unselfish play of Martin Necas who was acquired in the Rantanen trade has really opened up more scoring opportunities and made everyone around him better.

No. 7: Carolina Hurricanes

The Canes are the NHL’s most bizarre good team. It’s been this way since Rod Brind’Amour took over and molded this organization in his own image. While there’s something beautiful about their hard-nosed, grinding forecheck and insistence on team play over individual glory, this hasn’t helped them in the playoffs where big performances from star players reign supreme.

Carolina’s lack of power play success this season is indicative of their issues as an organization. They managed to only score of 18.49% of PP opportunities this season (25th in the NHL), and still lack a decisive scorer outside of Seth Jarvis who is willing to put the team on his back. The blockbuster trade for Miko Rantanen was supposed to solve this, but his unwillingness to sign long-term led to his trade to Dallas, and left the Canes in a bit of a lurch where they had to spend their trade deadline trying to ship off Rantanen, rather than acquire a difference-maker of their own.

This is a team who approaches hockey differently to everyone else in the league. Thus far the Brind’Amour way hasn’t converted into postseason success. The Hurricanes are capable of winning against anyone in the NHL, but also struggle if they find themselves in a hole and need individual performance to carry them.

It might feel like this place is a little high but the addition of Alexander Nikishin for the playoff run might be the move that puts the Canes over the top.

No. 8: Florida Panthers

The reigning Stanley Cup Champions might be the most terrifying team in these playoffs, even if they’re eighth in these rankings. The reason for this is Matthew Tchachuk. Missing a big chunk of the regular season due to a groin injury, Florida is insistent that he’ll be able to return for the playoffs. When he does it might just be enough to put the Panthers over the top once more.

This is largely the same team that won last year, albeit with the notable addition of Brad Marchand at the deadline which gave them a veteran presence they were missing on the back lines.

The wild card for this team is Bob. Sergei Bobrovsky was an absolute wall in last year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs which propelled them to winning it all, but he’s still a mercurial goalie who will make the save of the year one second, then allow in the softest goal imaginable the next. The Panthers have been helped this season with the arrival of Spencer Knight, who is poised to be heir apparent in the net for Florida — but a lot of this team’s ability to win and move on hinges on how Bob can perform.

No. 9: Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lighting are … fine. This is not the most dominant Tampa Bay team we’ve seen in recent years, and that’s a bit of a shocker to be honest. The assumption I had was that the addition of Jake Guentzel would be the move that took this from one of the best teams in the East and turned them into an absolute juggernaut, but that didn’t really materialize.

In fact, while a lot of the individual efforts look better on paper for the Lightning, they still feel like a team that hasn’t really gelled. They’re unpredictable, at times a little too undisciplined, and it’s difficult to really get behind a team like Tampa Bay when they’ve dropped gimme games the should have dominated this season.

No. 10: Edmonton Oilers

The Oilers feel like a carbon copy of last year’s team (for better or worse), albeit with smaller margins for error. In a lot of ways this is still a two-man team with Leon Draisatl and the incomparable Connor McDavid anchoring it all.

There’s a fundamental issue though when McDavid isn’t producing at quite the same rate, and Zach Hyman isn’t reaching his marks from last year — especially when defense and goaltending are the big issues still rearing their head.

It’s rough to count out the Oilers when they arguably have the two best forwards in hockey. McDavid and Draisatl are the reason Edmonton is in the playoffs, but it’s hard to put too much stock in them with issues of line depth.

No. 11: Los Angeles Kings

Defense is the name of the game here. With Jim Hiller in his first full season as head coach we’ve gotten a sense of his hockey sensibilities and the Kings are executing on is perfectly. Los Angeles are 2nd in the NHL allowing a measly 2.44 goals per game, with this is due to the deep, varied defensive line pairings the Kings have available — and, of course, Darcy Kuemper in net who has been a wall this season.

So why aren’t the Kings higher? Offense, or lack thereof. For all their defensive prowess this is a team that struggles to put the biscuit in the net when it matters. They like to grind out games and take teams to deep water, but if they’re jumped on early it’s tough to score their way back into it.

This could be the Achilles heel in the playoffs.

No. 12: Minnesota Wild

Talk about getting healthy at the right time. I look at this team like a poor man’s Florida Panthers of the west with both Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Erikkson Ek being available for the wild.

Goal scoring has been a significant issue without these big two players on the ice, and hopefully that changes for Minnesota in the playoffs. This is a team with the ability to surprise, but maybe not enough on paper to envision them challenging the monsters of the west in Dallas, Winnipeg, Las Vegas, or Colorado. Still, the way this team players is custom build to make noise and frustrate a higher-rated seed.

No. 13: New Jersey Devils

This team should be much better, it’s as simple as that. The Devils have a deep roster most organizations would kill for, and two legitimate stars in Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt — but they just keep struggling to put it all together in a way that’s convincing.

The prevailing feeling with the Devils is that they should be capable of so much more — at every single position. Goaltending is a big problem for the Devils with the aging Jakob Markstrom and Jake Allen relying too much on the defense in front of them to get stops.

This feels like another season where the Devils will exit early in the playoffs despite feeling like a team that should be able to make a real push.

No. 14: St. Louis Blues

An early season coaching change was just what the doctor ordered as the Blues have flourished under former Bruins coach Jim Montgomery.

St. Louis is a young, inexperienced team that swung above its weight class this season — which is the positive. There’s a lot of room for growth around a nucleus of Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, and Dylan Holloway. However, the Blues are still lacking the goal scoring wings needed really make an impact in the playoffs.

This is a good litmus test to see how Montgomery’s version of the team stacks up against the league’s best, and it should make them better in the future.

No. 15: Ottawa Senators

It’s been really fun to see the Senators return to playoff contention after several years of rebuilding, and it seems the team has finally found the right man to lead them in head coach Travis Green.

Green has really preached defensive fundamentals and the forecheck, which has led to the Sens moving from 26th in the NHL in goals allowed a year ago, to 10th in 2024-25. Linus Ullmark has been fantastic in net, but scoring has been a big issue for Ottawa this season compared to other playoff teams, and that could come back to bite them.

Realistically they need another year or two to become contenders, but this is a step in the right direction.

No. 16: Montreal Canadiens

It’s just nice the Canadiens are back in the playoffs. It’s good for hockey. That’s more or less the nicest thing I can say.

To their credit the Canadiens have a sneaky ability to play up to better competition, but performances like this are few and far between. Montreal still lacks the top-end talent to compete in the East, and outside of Nick Suzuki and Cole Caulfield there’s not really anyone on this roster that really scares you.

Another team looking at the playoffs as a building block, the goal should be to simply be competitive in their opening series. That would be a big step forward for the organization.