Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev will face each other for the 13th time in their careers and the second time at the Australian Open when they play again in the semifinals in Melbourne on Friday.
The head-to-head series is tied at 6-6, with Alcaraz leading 3-2 on hard outdoor courts after a recent 6-4, 6-3 semis victory in Cincinnati last summer. Zverev, however, won their previous meeting in Melbourne 6-1, 6-3, 6-7 (2), 6-4 in the 2024 quarterfinals.
Those relative numbers should encourage Zverev as the sport’s underdog. The third-ranked German must also be pleased with his form at Melbourne Park. This is his fourth trip to at least the last four, including a runner-up finish last year. Zverev’s recent run at the Aussie Open included wins over Gabriel Diallo, Alexandre Muller, Cameron Norrie, Francisco Cerundolo, and Learner Tien, giving him a 36-11 record at the tournament.
However, Alcaraz presents a great challenge. The 22-year-old Spaniard has been the best player so far these two days – yes, better than Jannik Sinner. Alcaraz earned a spot in his first Australian Open semifinal by eliminating Adam Walton, Yannick Hanfmann, Corentin Moutet, Tommy Paul, and Alex de Minaur all in straight sets.
There is no longer any reason to panic about Alcaraz Down Under. He used to be less than 100 percent in this event, but now the script has changed. Although an alarming number of players have already struggled with injuries at this early stage of the season, the world number 1 looks to be physically fit.
Zverev will have to be at his best on Friday, as he did against Student Tien in the quarters (24 aces, one double fault, and 72 percent serving). However, the 28-year-old still needed a fourth goal scorer to reach the finish line as he was out of the first round. In points where he did not take more than four shots, Zverev had a plus-38 margin over Tien; in scores of five shots or more, Zverev was minus-11.
The underdog will probably compete against Alcaraz because he is very efficient. However, in the end, the difference in their court games will probably be too great of a chasm.
Pick: Alcaraz at 4
