Atp Tour

Australian Open tennis pick: Sabalenka vs. Rybakina

Photo credit: Courtesy of Atlanta Cup/Jared Wickerham

Two of the biggest hitters in the women’s game will face off in the final of the Australian Open, and the result could be the best match of the tournament.

It’s a familiar matchup, too, as Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will be going head-to-head for the 15th time in their careers on Saturday night at Rod Laver Arena. The head-to-head series stands at 8-6 in favor of Sabalenka, who beat Rybakina 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 in the 2023 Aussie Open final. However, Rybakina is 6-4 in their last 10 meetings after losing the first four. The Kazakh recently won 6-3, 7-6 (0) in the 2025 WTA Finals championship match.

That end of the season held by Rybakina has extended to 2026. The world No. 5 is 8-1 on the season, giving him a 19-1 record in his last 20 matches overall. He has not dropped a single set so far at Melbourne Park, and is world No. 6 only Jessica Pegula was able to force a tiebreaker (Rybakina won 6-3, 7-6(7) in the semis). Rybakina’s path to the top also featured a 7-5, 6-1 victory over world No. 2 Iga Swiatek on Tuesday.

Elena RybakinaElena Rybakina

Sabalenka also did not lose a single set en route to the championship match, despite being pushed by three goals combined by Anastasia Potapova and Victoria Mboko. Overall, though, the world No. 1 is largely untested and has never faced anyone ranked better than 12.

Rybakina is the underdog, but a slight upset is within reason. He has played a major role in this matchup in recent times and has had some of the toughest games against some of the toughest opponents so far in Melbourne. That could work well for the 5th seed in what is almost certain to be a competitive, back-and-forth final.

Select: Rybakina in3

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