Australian Open R1 preview and prediction: Bublik vs. Brooksby, Zverev vs. Diallo

The Australian Open will begin on Sunday, with seeds Alexander Bublik and Alexander Zverev facing tough first-round tests. They will face Jenson Brooksby and Gabriel Diallo, respectively.

(10) Alexander Bublik vs. Jenson Brooksby

For the third time in his career, Bublik starts the Grand Slam as one of the foreign title favorites behind Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. His first such attempt did not go well – losing in the first round at Wimbledon to Jaume Munar. The second was much better, as Bublik defeated Tommy Paul en route to the US Open fourth round but suffered a bad draw and lost to Jannik Sinner. A banner 2025 campaign featuring four ATP titles allowed Bublik to become one of the Nitto ATP Finals. Picking up where he left off, the 28-year-old Kazakh kicked off the season with a title in Hong Kong.

There is no more struggle in the opening stages of Bublik’s slam as the world No. 10, but the meeting with Brooksby on Sunday is not friendly in the opening rankings. Brooksby is back to No. 48 in the world and would likely be thriving in the majors right now had he not been suspended for two years in 2023 and 2024. The 25-year-old American won their only previous meeting with Bublik 6-2, 6-3 at the 2022 Montreal Masters. Unfortunately for Brooksby, this is a completely different Bublik that will be on the other side of the net. This would be tricky for Bublik of old, but the 10th seed’s current style of baseball should be enough to dismiss Brooksby’s junk-balling.

Choose: Bublik in 3

(3) Alexander Zverev vs. Gabriel Diallo

After each season that passes without a Grand Slam title to his name, the pressure mounts on Zverev. The 28-year-old German is getting older, while Alcaraz and Sinner seem to be getting better and better. Zverev finished runner-up at a major for the third time in his career in the past 12 months, when he was beaten by Sinner in the final of the Australian Open. The current form of the world No. 3 is a question mark, as he ended 2025 by failing to make the finals of the Nitto ATP Finals and compiled a 1-1 record in the United Cup to start this season (beating Tallon Griekspoor, losing to Hubert Hurkacz).

Next up for Zverev on Sunday is Diallo, who he has never faced. Both his style of play (a big one-two punch with his serve and forehand) and his ranking (No. 41) suggest that Diallo is one of the most dangerous unseeded players in the field. The 24-year-old Canadian reached 33rd place and tasted the big stage when he reached the third round of the 2024 US Open as a qualifier (he lost to Tommy Paul in the fourth match of the tiebreaker). If the version of Zverev is shown in this game, it is upsetting to him that it can happen. He may struggle – as he often does in the opening rounds at Melbourne Park – but it probably won’t be easy.

Pick: Zverev at 5