With Jannik Sinner out of the tournament, Carlos Alcaraz is now the title favorite at the Doha ATP 500. Alcaraz faces Andrey Rublev in the semis on Friday, while Jakub Mensik meets Arthur Fils.
(1) Carlos Alcaraz vs. (5) Andrey Rublev
Alcaraz and Rublev will be making their sixth career debut when they battle for a spot in the Qatar ExxonMobil Open championship match on Friday. Rublev may be the underdog, but he should be encouraged by being relatively competitive in this matchup – even though he trails the head-to-head series 4-1. Only once has the Russian lost in a different fashion, and he took a set in each of their two meetings in 2025 (Wimbledon and Cincinnati). Rublev’s lone victory came with a 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 decision at the 2024 Madrid Masters.
The world No. 14 did well to beat Jesper de Jong, Fabian Marozsan, and Stefanos Tsitsipas earlier this week, but the world No. 1 on the other side of the net is an entirely different proposition. Rublev is 2-13 in his last 15 games against top-five opponents and an even more alarming 4-17 in his last 21 against top-ten opponents.
Pick: Alcaraz at 2
Arthur Fils vs. (6) Jakub Mensik
There will be no Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner after Mensik upset second-ranked Italy 7-6(3), 2-6, 6-3 on Thursday. Apart from the stomach injury that forced him out of what would have been the fourth round match of the Australian Open against Novak Djokovic, the start of this season has been good for Mensik. The 16th-ranked Czech’s 11-2 record also includes a title in Auckland.
After missing the second half of last year with a back injury, Fils is already in resurgent form. The 21-year-old Frenchman suffered a poor draw against eventual champion Alex de Minaur in the first round of Rotterdam, but made it to Montpellier and so far in Doha has knocked out Kamil Majchrzak, Quentin Halys, and Jiri Lehecka. It is always difficult to follow up such a big result one day later, and Fils – although he is not a Sinner – is not an easy opponent for Mensik.
Select: Enter 3
