New Year’s Day action-packed College Football Playoff action includes a quarterfinal showdown between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Indiana Hoosiers in the Rose Bowl. Indiana is currently where Alabama usually is: No. 1 in the nation. The Crimson Tide may be down a bit this season, but they can’t be down after knocking off SEC rival Texas A&M in the opening round of the CFP.
Let’s get into my picks for Alabama vs. Indiana.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Indiana Hoosiers odds
Cash line: Alabama -130 / Indiana +110
Spread: Alabama +7 (-110) / Indiana -7 (-110)
Total: Over 48 (-1100) / Under 48 (-108)
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Indiana Hoosiers best bet #1: Under 48 (-110)
Despite coming back from 17 points down to beat Texas A&M, questions remain about Alabama’s offense. Running back Jam Miller is stuck, and even when he’s healthy it’s been a struggle for the Crimson Tide to run the ball effectively. The Tide now must face an Indiana defense that is third nationally in rushing yards allowed and second in opponents’ EPA per rush. While both offenses are capable of putting up points, it feels like each defense should have the edge in this matchup. The Hoosiers boast one of the best defenses in the nation, which was especially on display against Oregon and Ohio State. Their ability to dominate the front should be shown again at the expense of ‘Bama’s offensive line that is decent in the middle and in the middle.
Assuming the Tide’s ground game will be at a standstill on Thursday, the biggest pressure will be on QB Ty Simpson. However, Simpson’s production has declined since the first half of the 2025 campaign — and doesn’t show any improvement in Indiana’s pass rush. On the other side of the ball, the Crimson Tide’s D is solid. Nick Saban may be gone, but defensive coordinator Kane Womack is one of the best defensive minds in the country. If Ohio State limited Fernando Mendoza and the company reached 13 points in the Big Ten Championship, Alabama should at least be able to keep them in something in the mid-20s at most.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Indiana Hoosiers best player prop bet: Kaelon Black Over 58.5 rushing yards (-114)
Black and Roman Hemby split the Hoosiers, so it’s hard to say who will have the hot hand on New Year’s Day. However, chances are good that the volume will be high for both players. Even with Mendoza winning the Heisman Trophy at QB, playing football may be Indiana’s best option. After all, Alabama is 10th nationally against the pass (168.4 yards per game allowed). The Crimson Tide is respectable against the run, too, although 120.6 yards per game allowed on 3.7 yards per carry aren’t outstanding numbers.
In the first eight games of the season, Black caught more than 10 balls only twice – and more than 11 only once. In four of the last five games, the Virginia Beach native has scored at least 12 runs. He has accumulated 67 yards or more in two straight games and 64 yards or more in five of the past seven. That stretch includes a 110-yard effort against Maryland on Nov. 1. In addition, Black has caught five of his seven TDs in the past seven contests, so it’s clear that the Indiana coaching staff has full confidence in him — including in the red zone. With a small yardage share (10 short of Hemby’s), Black has good passing value.
Read more:
Oregon vs Texas Tech predictions
Ole Miss vs. Forecasts for Georgia
Predictions for Miami vs. Ohio State
