The Elite Eight is set, and now it’s time to settle for the Final Four. Saturday’s March Madness slate is punctuated by a big showdown between the Arizona Wildcats and the Purdue Boilermakers. It’s number 1 vs. No. 2 in the Western region. Tipoff at the SAP Center in San Jose, California is set for 8:49 pm ET on TBS.
Here are my predictions for Purdue vs. Arizona.
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats odds
Money line: Purdue +200 / Arizona -245
Spread: Purdue +6 (-110) / Arizona -6 (-110)
Total: Over 152.5 (-115) / Under 152.5 (-105)
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats best bet #1: Over 152.5 (-115)
Arizona poured in 109 points against Arkansas on Thursday as both teams hit the mid-160s. The Wildcats probably would have scored even more if the game hadn’t been in such good shape, as they came out on top and won by 21 points. The ‘Cats have surpassed 80 points in seven of their last 10 outings, including a 92-point showing in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Coach Tommy Lloyd’s team ranks 7th in the nation in scoring at 86.7 points per game. Five players on the roster averaged double figures in scoring, and two others averaged at least 8.8 ppg. Six finished with at least 14 points in the win over Arkansas.
Purdue is averaging 87.3 points through three tournament games so far despite star guard Braden Smith being cold (9-for-28 from the field and 0-for-7 from three-point range in the last two contests). It’s hard to see Smith continuing to get caught, and Purdue’s dynamic offense will be more potent whenever Smith finds the range.
Both teams are ranked in the top eight nationally in shooting percentage. Purdue is also 12th in three-point shooting; Arizona is No. 35. The over is 4-0 in the Boilermakers last four games and 4-1 in the Wildcats last five.
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats best bet #2: Braden Smith Over 15.5 points (-115)
Even if his outside shooting isn’t falling, Smith has exceeded that 15.5 mark twice so far in the Big Dance and is averaging 18.0 ppg. That shows his numbers going forward. Purdue often likes to slow things down and use half-court sets that often result in layups by Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff or three-pointers by Fletcher Loyer. Coach Matt Painter’s team probably won’t be able to play like that against Arizona, which does a great job of controlling the tempo and running up and down the field. Expect plenty of turnovers for both teams, which is where Smith thrives.
