The Indian Wells quarterfinals will be decided at the end of Wednesday, when Carlos Alcaraz will compete against Casper Ruud. The unused Alex Michelsen tries to continue his run at the expense of Daniil Medvedev.
(1) Carlos Alcaraz vs. (13) Casper Ruud
Alcaraz and Ruud have faced each other for a Grand Slam title and the No. 1 ranking. 1 in a row (Alcaraz won in four sets in the 2022 US Open final). The story is very different this time, because Ruud is down to 13th in the rankings and therefore has to go up against the top-ranked Spaniard at the start of the fourth round of the Masters 1000 tournament. Going into this match at the BNP Paribas Open on Wednesday, Alcaraz leads the head-to-head series 5-1 and three of his five victories have come in a row.
Bidding for a third Indian Wells title, Alcaraz has advanced so far with defeats to Grigor Dimitrov and Arthur Rinderknech. The 22-year-old dropped a set at Rinderknech on Monday, but was impressive throughout the next two. Ruud fought past Alexander Shevchenko in the second-set breaker and needed three sets to eliminate Valentin Vacherot. The Norwegian has not played well this season (7-5 record) and now he has to face the best player in the world, so it’s a tough situation all around.
Pick: Alcaraz at 2
(11) Daniil Medvedev vs. Alex Michelsen
Medvedev and Michelsen will be playing each other for the third time in their careers. Michelsen gets another shot at the event after their 2025 Indian Wells meeting ended in his retirement after just two matches. Unfortunately for the 21-year-old American, he has had two more chances against Russia and lost both in straight sets – 6-4, 6-3 last summer in Halle and 6-4, 6-2 earlier this season in Brisbane.
There is no reason to think that anything will be different on Wednesday. Michelsen is playing well, but he survived a 7-5, 6-7(5), 7-6(6) thriller against Ugo Humbert and benefited from an unusually poor performance by Taylor Fritz in the third round. Meanwhile, Medvedev is on an absolute roll. The 29-year-old is 15-3 in 2026 with two titles (Brisbane and Dubai) and so far in these two days he has completely destroyed Alejandro Tabilo and Sebastian Baez. Expect Medvedev to keep the momentum going without much trouble.
Pick: Medvedev at 2
