The Oklahoma City Thunder have won five straight home games against the Golden State Warriors on Saturday night, tipping off at 8:30 pm ET on ESPN. Oklahoma City comes in with an NBA-best 49-15 record, while Golden State (32-30) looks set for a Western Conference playoff run.
Let’s get into my predictions for Warriors vs. Thunder.
Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder odds
Money line: Heroes +550 / Thunder -800
Spread: Heroes +14.5 (-115) / Fame -14.5 (-105)
Total: Over 219.5 (-110) / Under 219.5 (-110)
Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder best bet #1: Thunder -14.5 (-105)
Oklahoma City completely owns the head-to-head series so far this season. They won all three previous matchups and did so by 24, 12, and 38 points. The last meeting in OKC came on Nov. 11, when the Thunder beat them 126-102. They led that game by an absurd 35 points through three quarters before getting off the pedal. What worries the Warriors the most is that Stephen Curry even played in that game (he missed the next two). Even with Curry, Golden State is still completely out of the Paycom center.
With Curry still sidelined with a knee injury, there is no reason to think the visitors can compete on Saturday. They are also without Moses Moody (wrist), De’Anthony Melton (knee), and Will Richard (ankle), and Kristaps Porzingis (illness) is questionable. Let’s be honest; It’s hard to believe that Porzingis will play after missing the last six games.
Warriors are 4-9 against the spread in their last 13 outings and 0-3 ATS in their last three ATS.
Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder betting best player: Cason Wallace Under 10.5 points (-105)
Wallace was a complete disaster in every game between Golden State and Oklahoma City in 2025-26. In three head-to-head contests, the Kentucky product scored a total of nine points. No, that’s not a misprint – he averaged 3.0 ppg against the Warriors. In those three games, Wallace went 4-for-16 from the field and 1-for-7 from three.
Given his current situation, why should we expect Wallace to suddenly turn things around on Saturday? He has scored exactly four points in two of his last three games and has been held to single digits in nine of his last nine. Wallace is a shocking 1-for-12 from three-point range in the last four contests.
