The big match at the Indian Wells Masters continues on Wednesday, with the marquee match between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Denis Shapovalov. Joao Fonseca kicks off a fortnight against Raphael Collignon.
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Denis Shapovalov
Tsitsipas and Shapovalov will be playing for the seventh time in their matches when they meet in the first round of the BNP Paribas Open on Wednesday night. Shapovalov leads the head-to-head series 4-2, including 4-0 on hard outdoor courts. Two of his wins came in the Sunshine Double, though both were in Miami instead of Indian Wells (in a third-round tiebreaker in 2019 and 6-2, 6-4 in 2024). Both of Tsitsipas’ victories came on clay (Monte-Carlo 2018, Barcelona 2023).
Although Tsitsipas would obviously prefer to play this matchup on clay, the hard courts of Indian Wells are much better. You won’t find a hard court like clay anywhere else on the tour. Incredibly, Tsitsipas has taken center stage in the desert, with a 9-7 lifetime record – but at least reached the quarterfinals in 2021. Shapovalov has been even worse; the Canadian has never advanced to the division and hasn’t gotten past the third round since 2019. It’s hard to see Shapovalov doing better on this tour as he is just 4-4 in 2026 and is coming off a 6-2, 6-4 loss to Pablo Carreno Busta in the first round of Dubai.
Pick: Tsitsipas at 3
Joao Fonseca vs. Raphael Collignon
Fonseca wrapped up last season with the 500-point title in Basel, but entered 2026 with a back injury and was unable to run. The 19-year-old Brazilian’s record is just 1-3 and he has never lost to anyone ranked higher than No. 208 in the world.
Fonseca’s top seed on Wednesday is a second meeting with Collignon, who lost his first match in three sets at the 2024 Davis Cup. The 24-year-old Belgian has been playing the best tennis of his career since last summer and is ranked 77th. His 2026 campaign includes a quarterfinal effort in Brisbane as a qualifier and a Challenger title in Pau, France last month. Fonseca won the MGM Slam tournament by 10 points in Las Vegas this past weekend. That’s good preparation, but practicing at Indian Wells for a few more days would have been even better. Collignon has a good chance of pulling off a minor upset.
Pick: Collignon at 3
