Selected professionals are back in the semifinals of the Australian Open: Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev. A panel of three teams make their predictions for Friday’s action in Melbourne.
(4) Novak Djokovic vs. (2) Jannik Sinner
Ricky: Unless there is some voodoo magic going on with Djokovic’s opponents and one is thrown down, this match should be one-way traffic. It seems the only way the 38-year-old Serb can advance is by getting another free pass – as he did to Jakub Mensik in the fourth round (walkover) and Lorenzo Musetti in the quarterfinals (retirement). Djokovic was rolling on Musetti and the bump on his foot didn’t help. Now the 24-time major champion has to face his toughest opponent in Sinner, who he has lost to five times in a row. Recent meetings have not even been competitive. Soni rolled straight sets at the French Open and Wimbledon last season, losing 6-3, 6-3, 6-4 in the final. The two-time defending AO champion dropped just one set over the two days, and that was when he suffered a physical setback (before the roof closed) against Eliot Spizzirri in the third round. He must not lose a set on Friday. Sinner in 3: 6-3, 7-5, 6-2.
Cheryl: Head-to-head alone does not accurately reflect the reality of this matchup. The stat sheet says Sinner has a slight 6-4 edge, which is technically true. But a closer look reveals Djokovic’s dominance early in Sinner’s career but he has won just twice in eight tries since 2023. If that wasn’t alarming enough for the Serb, the games have slowed considerably as Djokovic continues to grow and Sinner remains consistent. Of course, there is also the fact that Djokovic is not playing well…or to put a finer point on it, he is more like not playing at all. He beat Botic Van de Zandschulp in straight sets last weekend as well he hasn’t won a set since. He received a walkover from Jakub Mensik in the round of 16 and lost in two sets to Lorenzo Musetti when the Italian retired with a leg injury. It’s best not to forget that Sinner was stuck in a pretzel leg in his third round match due to extreme heat and got lucky when they stopped playing to close the roof. But since he hasn’t had a hard time since then, it probably isn’t up for discussion. Barring the unexpected, this one will go to Soni. Again. Sinner in 4: 6-4, 5-7, 6-3, 7-5.
Pete (Tennis Acumen): Ironically, both Sinner and Djokovic are very lucky to even reach the semifinals in the first major of the year. The two-time defending champion got a lucky break when the heat index forced the roof to close at Rod Laver Arena in his third-round match against American Eliot Spizzirri. Other than that game, it was business as usual for the 2nd generation. Djokovic has not won a single since scoring the third goal in the third round against Botic van de Zandschulp, as he advanced to the quarters and reached the semis where Lorenzo Musetti was unable to continue at the start of the third set despite winning the first two. Sinner has won five in a row in this H2H series and six of the last seven, while Djokovic has managed one set win in their last five meetings. Expect the 10-time AO champion to compete to the best of his abilities. While that alone often gets the job done against most of the ATP field, it won’t be nearly enough at this point in his storied career with Sinner on the other side of the net. Sinner in 3: 7-5, 6-3, 6-4.
(1) Carlos Alcaraz vs. (3) Alexander Zverev
Ricky: This should be the most competitive of the two semis, mainly for one reason: Zverev’s serve. Through five games at Melbourne Park, Germany hit 80 aces to just six double-faults and was broken just seven times. That shot alone could keep him in the game. Unfortunately for Zverev, Alcaraz is also working well (he has broken seven times) and is clearly a superior court player. After the Spaniard’s best on grass and clay Grand Slams in 2023 and 2024, his power on hard court has returned. Alcaraz rode to the 2025 US Open title (including a win over Sinner in the final) and has been dominant so far in Melbourne. World No. 1 did not drop a set en route to the semis and was particularly impressive in a 7-5, 6-2, 6-1 victory over a red-hot Alex de Minaur on Tuesday. Alcaraz wins…but it’s not easy for him against Zverev (6-6 H2H). Alcaraz at 4: 6-7 (5), 6-3, 6-4, 6-4.
Cheryl: If you pay attention to the seeding, you will notice that the semifinals are against the top four seeds. It rarely works that way, but here we are. This game has the potential to bring excitement to men’s equality. The head-to-head is dead even at six wins each. The other good news is that both men are playing well. Alcaraz did not drop a set en route to the semis. Zverev dropped a bunch of them, but don’t let that fool you into thinking he’s out of form. He was also a finalist in 2025 in Melbourne (losing to Sinner), so the courts match his game. I can’t pick against another Alcaraz-Sinner final. Like Thanos, it’s inevitable. Still, this should be a treat. Alcaraz at 5: 7-6 (4), 4-6, 6-3, 5-7, 6-2.
Pete (Tennis Acumen): Zverev has been challenging Alcaraz, as evidenced by their 6-6 H2H. In fact, Zverev can once again point to his convincing victory in the 2024 Australian Open quarters if anyone doubts he is up to the task. Despite a tough test against American Tommy Paul in the fourth round, the Spaniard and No. Zverev, a three-time finalist and runner-up in Melbourne last year, has been tied for fourth in all but one match so far over the two days. It will be interesting to see if the absence of long-time coach Juan Carlos Ferrero will affect Alcaraz in the final round of the senior team. It is an unnamed place from now on. That said, he’s in great form at the moment. Zverev hit just six errors in 19 sets in five matches. Even if he continues to serve this well, however, it probably won’t be enough this time. Alcaraz at 4: 6-4, 3-6, 7-6 (4), 6-4.
