It’s almost chalked up to the top draw for the Australian Open, with Carlos Alcaraz running into Tommy Paul on Sunday. The unmissable match in the fourth round pits Alex de Minaur against Alexander Bublik.
(1) Carlos Alcaraz vs. (19) Tommy Paul
Alcaraz breezed through the first week of the Australian Open, not having to hit high gear at any point. The world No. 1 eliminated Adam Walton 6-3, 7-6(2), 6-2, Yannick Hanfmann 7-6(4), 6-3, 6-2, and Corentin Moutet 6-2, 6-4, 6-1. Although Alcaraz played well against Moutet, she served up a double break in the second set before righting the ship.
The Spaniard’s quest for a maiden title at Melbourne Park continues with a fourth round clash against Paul on Sunday. This marks their eighth and eighth meeting on the big stage – be it at a Grand Slam, a Masters 1000 event, or the Olympics. Alcaraz leads the head-to-head series 5-2, including 2-0 in majors (2024 Wimbledon, 2025 French Open). This was one of the best tennis rivalries in 2022 and 2023, but their latest encounter was one-way traffic in Alcaraz. Although Paul hasn’t dropped a set yet, it’s hard to see the 20th-ranked American giving Alcaraz much of a scare.
Pick: Alcaraz at 4
(10) Alexander Bublik vs. (6) Alex de Minaur
De Minaur and Bublik will be vying for sixth place in their careers on Sunday. The head-to-head series stands at 3-2 in favor of De Minaur, but Bublik won both their matches in 2025 – 2-6, 2-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2 at Roland Garros and 6-7 (5), 6-4, 7-5 in the quarterfinals of the Paris Masters.
A new and improved version of Bublik was shown at both of those gatherings. It looks set to happen in 2026, too, as the 10th-ranked Kazakh is off to a 7-0 start with a title in Hong Kong followed by Aussie Open victories over Jenson Brooksby, Marton Fucsovics and Tomas Martin Etcheverry – all in straight sets. De Minaur also leaves. The sixth-ranked Australian earned her place in the second week by defeating Mackenzie McDonald, Hamad Medjedovic, and Frances Tiafoe when she dropped one set to Medjedovic in the tiebreaker. Both guys are in outstanding form, this should be one of the best matches of the third round and Daniil Medvedev vs. Student Tien. With five sets to go in front of what will be a raucous crowd, De Minaur’s resistance may be enough to withstand Bublik’s fire.
Pick: De Minaur at 5
