The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs begins Saturday afternoon with the AFC between the Buffalo Bills and the Denver Broncos. Buffalo is playing its second straight game after winning at Jacksonville last Sunday. Denver received a first-round bye as the No. 1 seed. 1 in the conference after winning the AFC West.
Let’s get into my credit forecast vs. Broncos.
Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos odds
Money line: Bills +100 / Broncos -120
Spread: Bills +1.5 (-110) / Broncos -1.5 (-118)
Total: Over 46.5 (-105) / Under 46.5 (-115)
Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos best bet #1: Under 46.5 (-115)
I don’t have much faith in either side. Buffalo is tied, and Denver has no playoff experience. Instead, the bottom looks very attractive – as neither case inspires great confidence. Josh Allen is clearly a force under center, but the Bills lost wide receiver Gabe Davis to a torn ACL last weekend and their pass-catching corps was just out of shape. Now they must face a Broncos defense that during the regular season was ranked No. 2 in the NFL, No. 3 in scoring, No.
Fortunately for the visitors, they should be in good shape defensively. Buffalo held its last three regular-season opponents to a combined 41 points and limited Jacksonville to 24 after the Jaguars consistently scored more than 30 goals week after week. Denver’s offense has never been its strength and has gotten worse since running back JK Dobbins went down with a foot injury in Week 10. After that improvement, the Broncos’ EPA per rush metrics dipped from No.14 to No.25 in the league. Although Bo Nix has played well for the most part, he can’t be trusted in a big playoff situation. Just 38 points were scored when the two teams met in the wild card round last year, and another low-scoring affair could be on the cards.
Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos best player prop bet: Josh Allen Over 35.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Broncos defense is pretty good, but this isn’t a bad game for Allen in terms of his ability to rack up rushing yards. Denver led the league in sacks by a mile, so Allen will have to make a lot of improvements in the backfield. In addition to the designed runs being called, the Wyoming product will be forced to cut it and run after it in passing plays, thus increasing his total number of carries. Denver ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in rushing yards allowed to opposing QBs during the regular season.
Allen has had double-digit rushing efforts in three straight playoff games. The former NFL MVP has rushed for at least 39 yards in four of his last six postseason games, and rushed for 38 yards or more in four of his last six starts of the season. In the biggest game of the season so far, count on Allen to once again take matters into his own hands.
