There are few tennis facts that can stop your watch like Rafael Nadal hitting his left forehand over Roger Federer’s backhand and Reilly Opelka playing tiebreakers. You just know it’s coming. Why am I bringing this up? Because Kazakhstan’s Alexander Bublik route of self-doubt should be counted among them. There is simply no way to tell from one game to another how Bublik will do.
In many ways he is an advertisement for everything that makes tennis special. If you wake up in a bad mood and find yourself distracted, you may lose. You don’t like to play in the wind, but there is wind? Too bad, too sad. No team will relieve you, no pinch hitter can come in if your arm is tired. And nowhere is that fact easier to see than waiting to see which version of Bublik will make it to court. Maybe it’s the version that beats Jannik Sinner – but it could just as easily be him losing to world No. 222 Vitaliy Sachko.
This week, it looks like we’re getting the first one. Bublik looked good all week in Hong Kong, especially in his final victory over Marcos Giron.
Bublik’s opponent, Lorenzo Musetti, is ranked 7th in the world. The Italian had the best season of his career in 2025, but was unable to cross the finish line all year and ended up without a title to his name. Musetti’s first game was a bit rusty, as he just kicked out a win over Tomas Martin Etcheverry. The top seed played well in the semis against Andrey Rublev and goes into Sunday’s final in good form.
Bublik has won two of the last three matches, although Musetti won the last meeting. This should be a fun game. Bublik’s form has been much better all week, so put this one in the books as a potential minor upset win for the 2nd seed.
Cheryl chose: Bublik in 3
Ricky pick: Bublik at 3
