The 2026 tennis season is here, so it’s time to make predictions for the prestigious field of eight at the Nitto ATP Finals. Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner are clearly the big favorites to be No. 1 and No. 2 respectively, but the other six places may be easily taken.
Here are my Turin picks for 2026, in order:
1. Jannik Sinner – As predicted in 2025, Sinner ended the year at No. 2 in the ratings. If not for the three-month suspension, the Italian would have been No. 1 – and he has a place to rest, too. Assuming he plays a full schedule in 2026, Sinner should be considered the favorite over Alcaraz to secure the top spot. The overall height of the Alcaraz is undoubtedly high, but the harmony of the Sinner is incomparable. The 24-year-old is the king of hard courts – that, of course, is where most tennis is played.
2. Carlos Alcaraz – Unlike last season, there are more question marks surrounding Alcaraz than Sinner heading into 2026. The departure of Spanish coach Juan Carlos Ferrero has been the biggest story of the offseason. Alcaraz should be fine with the rest of his senior team in place, but Ferrero’s exit won’t help. Either way, the 22-year-old has not changed like his biggest rival. I expect another spectacular season with multiple slam titles, but that may not be enough for Alcaraz to maintain his hold on the No. 1 spot.
3. Taylor Fritz – Counting full-time players (ie, excluding Novak Djokovic), Fritz looks like the third best player in the world right now. Despite what the rankings may suggest, Alexander Zverev can’t really lay claim to that distinction when he’s outplayed by Fritz in their head-to-head series. The 28-year-old is impressive on both hard courts and grass, so he always has a good chance of reaching at least the semi-finals in three of the four majors. If he can produce a few decent results at the clay-court Masters 1000s and/or Roland Garros, the No. 3 spot is certainly a realistic goal.
4. Alexander Zverev – It was a normal season, as always, a normal season for Zverev in 2025. He reached one final Grand Slam (Australian Open), fell short again, and found himself in the top three at the end of the year. The pressure continues to mount on the 28-year-old German in his quest to win a major title. He’s not getting any younger, while Alcaraz and Sinner are getting better. Unless Zverev starts playing more aggressive tennis, he won’t suddenly start improving in the second half of his career. If anything, I see him taking a small step back in 2026.
5. Lorenzo Musetti – Musetti is simply a great all-court tennis player. He has reached at least the Grand Slam quarterfinals at all three venues, including the semis at Wimbledon (2024) and the French Open (2025). It feels like the Italian has been around forever, but – shockingly – he’s only 23 years old. Musetti hasn’t even reached his prime yet! Combine his consistency throughout and his ability to make deep runs at the big stages and the result should be an impressive season for the current world number 8.
6. Daniel Medvedev – Can I put my life money on the renewal of Medvedev? No. But at 29 years old, he is still in his prime and should be able to bounce back from last season’s disaster. While Medvedev wasn’t bad by his standards, he was actually decent outside of the slams. Despite just winning one has completed four Grand Slams combined, the Russian still finished a respectable 13th in the world. Mercifully ending his title drought (he lifted the Almaty trophy in October) should give Medvedev momentum heading into 2026.
7. Ben Shelton – Shelton comfortably qualified for the 2025 Nitto ATP Finals before going winless in Turin and finishing at world No. 9. If not for a shoulder injury sustained at the US Open, the American left-hander almost certainly would have been No. As a formidable all-around player, he can rack up a lot of points throughout the season. Prospering on the big stage – where the score is so good – also helps.
8. João Fonseca – Most tennis fans probably think Fonseca should be even better than he was in 2025 (he finished No. 24 in the rankings). The Brazilian was only 18 years old that season, so the brakes had to be pulled. Now, however, it is time for Fonseca to leave. He is already one of the most talented players in the world, so even at 19 years old – he looks ready to make the leap to superstardom that he is destined for. The Fonseca hype train has already left the station in 2025; now it will get steam in 2026.
Alternate
9. Novak Djokovic – Unlike his much younger rivals, Djokovic won’t be playing anywhere near a full schedule. And – even if he’s in contention – the 38-year-old won’t bother pushing Turin late by filling his calendar in the fall. Obviously Djokovic remains the top five type of player when he wants to be; The important thing is that he will not be expected to play enough to be in the top 8.
10. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina – Felix Auger-Aliassime, Alex de Minaur, Casper Ruud…. All of those guys are previous year-end tournament participants and have a good chance to be in the mix again. However, I will roll with Davidovich Fokina to make his way to Turin as one. I feel like the floodgates will open when he finally wins his first ATP title. If ADF can do it sometime in the early stages of 2026, a big year could be on the cards.
