In the College Football Playoff quarterfinal on New Year’s Day, regular SEC foes the Ole Miss Rebels and the Georgia Bulldogs will collide in the Sugar Bowl. The teams have met once this season, with the Rebels leading 35-26 in the fourth quarter before the Bulldogs scored 17 unanswered points to make it eight. This time, the Rebels aim for a different result against the SEC champions when the ball tips off at 8:00 pm ET on ESPN.
Here are my favorite bets for Ole Miss vs. Georgia.
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs odds
Cash line: Ole Miss +200 / Georgia -245
Spread: Ole Miss +6 (-105) / Georgia -6 (-115)
Total: Over 55.5 (-110) / Under 55.5 (-110)
Best bets for Ole Miss Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs #1: Georgia -6 (-115)
I’ll start by saying that this is not a line you need to rush to bet on before the game, as you might get a better number live. Georgia has made a habit of starting slow against power conference opponents, and with a long layoff following the SEC Championship, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that again here – and I’m even betting Ole Miss 1Q +3.5 already because of it. However, I believe that Georgia head coach Kirby Smart is one – if not the only – in-game adjuster in the game, which allows the Bulldogs to run away from their opponents in the second half as they did in Athens against the Rebels earlier this year.
The Lane Kiffin drama surrounding Ole Miss didn’t have an impact during their home game against Tulane, but Kiffin’s absence could be an improvement in this game. It’s hard to trust a group of coordinators with little or no head coaching experience in any postseason game, let alone a College Football Playoff game against Smart and the Dawgs. While I expect Ole Miss to have a strong first quarter with its early game script, once Georgia settles in on the Bulldogs it should be able to pull away from the Rebels behind their strong offense and better defense. Ole Miss finished the regular season 129th in rushing yards and 94th in rushing yards allowed, while giving up 4.26 yards per attempt – which ranked 72nd. That doesn’t solve much against a strong backfield like Georgia. In comparison, the Bulldogs come into this game with a career-high 20 marks in all three of the aforementioned metrics and a career-high 35 marks in first PPAs and efficiency allowed since Week 9. They backed that up with a top-20 secondary in PPA in passing and PPA touchdowns allowed since the end of October in addition to a highly effective football unit. Look for the Dawgs to come out late and close out this number.
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs best player prop bet: Nate Frazier Over 58.5 rushing yards (-114)
In all of Georgia’s big games down the stretch, Nate Frazier has been relied upon to carry the brunt of the run game. The sophomore running back has totaled 861 yards this season at 5.4 yards per attempt, and has been given at least 12 attempts in each of the seven games since the controversial win at Auburn in early October. In addition, he has surpassed this number in four of Georgia’s last six games against power conference opponents.
Ole Miss’ run defense is the weakest part of the stoppage, as mentioned before, and the Rebels have given up more than 60 yards to their opponent’s leading rusher in almost every game this year. Most recently, Ole Miss allowed Tulane’s Jamauri McClure 84 yards rushing, while Mississippi State’s Fluff Bothwell had 80 and Florida’s Jaden Baugh had 61. Look for Frazier to continue that trend.
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