The College Football Playoff begins Friday night with an exciting rematch between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Oklahoma Sooners. The game will be played in Norman on Oklahoma’s campus, which should provide a raw atmosphere under the lights when the ball goes live at 8:00 pm ET on ABC.
Let’s get into my favorite Friday night lights bet, the game show.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Sooners odds
Money line: Oklahoma -120/ Alabama +100
Spread: Oklahoma -1.5 (-105) / Alabama +1.5 (-115)
Total: Over 40.5 (-110) / Under 40.5 (-110)
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Sooners best bet #1: Alabama ML (+100)
These teams met about a month ago and Oklahoma came away with the win in Tuscaloosa thanks to a +3 advantage. The Tide outgained the Sooners 406-212, limited them to just 3/13 on third downs, committed just two penalties and controlled the possession battle by nine minutes. However, the Tide lost the game because they gave the Sooners too much space on two occasions, leading to 10 extra points for Oklahoma.
Alabama has leaked oil since its comeback win at South Carolina, but I still trust the Tide offensively over the Sooners instead of three turnovers in the first matchup. After all, two of those turnovers were blinders — one on a punt return — which is more random than thought. That was also the only game in which Alabama turned the ball over more than twice, as the Tide averaged just 0.8 turnovers in FBS matchups (14th) this year. The Sooners come into this game 120 in PPA per play and 126 in success rate from Week 9, and they are the most penalized team. As good as they are defensively, they are outside the top 40 in PPA in passing, completion rate, and passing touchdowns allowed since the end of October, which makes me think that Alabama QB Ty Simpson can repeat his 326-yard performance from the first meeting on Friday.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Sooners best bet #2: Ty Simpson Over 240.5 passing yards (-114)
Speaking of Simpson, let’s lock in his final yards to go over the total. As mentioned before, he’s already thrown 300+ against this defense once this year, and we already know he’s going to get volume. Alabama is not a good thing on the ground, and Kalen DeBoer knows that considering the Tide is 124th in rushing rate since Week 9. Simpson has seen a dip in his production since the first meeting with Oklahoma, but before that, he exceeded this number in seven of the nine games. Oklahoma’s secondary is the weakest part of the defense, and with Alabama C Parker Brailsford and TE Josh Cuevas returning to health, Simpson should be given a chance to lead the offense up and down the field in Norman.
