Saturday’s football slate is loaded with power conference technical games that carry college football results. Among them is the SEC championship between the 11-1 Georgia Bulldogs and the 10-2 Crimson Tide, which CollegeUp college football fans know well. This heavyweight bout is set to kick off at 4:00 PM ET and will air on ABC.
Here are my favorite SEC Championship bets.
Alabama Crimson Tide Vs. Georgia Bulldogs Odds
Money Line: Alabama +114 / Georgia -134
Spread: Alabama +2.5 (-105) / Georgia -2.5 (-115)
Total: Over 48.5 (-106) / Under 48.5 (-114)
Alabama Crimson Tide Vs. Georgia Bulldogs Best Bet #1: Alabama +2.5 (-105)
The Bulldogs and Crimson Tite represent 11 of the 12 SEC Champions, and four of those title games involved these games. The most recent postseason meeting between these programs was Alabama beating Noah. That win was planned by Nick Saban, but Kalen Deboer holds the tradition of beating Kirby Smart – as the wave has won doses in regular season meetings since then. As it stands, Smart is just 1-7 with Alabama as Georgia’s head coach.
In a meeting between the best teams in the nation, you have to split hairs to get the edge. However, you don’t have to look hard to see that Alabama has had a better defense of late. The Tide are top five in PPA Per Play and points allowed on a top drive over the last five weeks, and are better at creating havoc out of the endzone when they break the 20-yard line. When these teams met in September, Georgia was an A-2.5 favorite at home, and Alabama went on a six-year winning streak. Now, the dawgs put up that same camp despite the change in location. I see that Georgia is comfortable at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and is a hot team going in, but writing the bulldogs at -2.5 and here suggests that it will be at least in resch in Athens. I just don’t see it that way; This line should be close to Pick ’em.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Georgia Bulldogs Best Bet #2: Under 48.5 (-110)
In the September meeting between the two, the total was closed at 54 and the game remained under nine points. As a result, it was the first Alabama-Georgia game in Smart’s favor to stay under 48 combined points. The odd cast has since been completely overhauled in this next game, now sitting at 48.5. I would argue that it is not low enough.
Alabama and Georgia are the best way to approach this game. Both are outside the top 100 on the playing sheet again and I wouldn’t consider them special when it comes to explosiveness. Don’t get me wrong – These teams are good for occasional deep balls and long runs, but most of the time they use short-to-medium gains to work down the field. That’s likely to continue on Saturday given that both defenses are in the top 15 for a few carries for at least 20 yards. It’s also fair to say that – barring some surprises – both of these teams are expected to be in the College Football Playoff regardless of the outcome. An SEC championship is still a meaningful goal and should be celebrated, but these coaches know there are more games to be played to reach the ultimate goal of a national title. Therefore, I don’t expect the coach to put his players in a position of injury. Look for this one to be a low Logo-Sholing, Classic Sec Showdown with slow dynamic elements, solid offensive elements and strong defense.
