Jannik Sinner replaces Carlos Alcaraz at No. 1, but year-end top spot remains uncertain
ROME — Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have taken turns winning more than just a Grand Slam title this year.
The top two tennis players also bounce back and forth from the No. 1 spot.
Sinner officially returned to the top of the ATP rankings on Monday after winning the Paris Masters, replacing Alcaraz, who had held the honor for nearly two months.
But due to the math and rules of rankings, Alcaraz will return to No. 1 next Monday.
The points gap between the Italians and Spaniards is now so small – Sinner has 11,500 points ahead of Alcaraz’s 11,250 – that it will ultimately come down to their performance at the upcoming ATP Finals in Turin to decide who ends the year in first place.
While neither Sinner nor Alcaraz is playing this week – except for when the ATP Finals starts on Sunday – the reason the rankings will change again next Monday is that it will be a day when each player’s performance in last year’s final will be marked down.
Sinner will lose next week the 1,500 points he gained from winning last year’s final, while Alcaraz will lose only the 200 points he gained after failing to advance in the group stage.
So next Monday, the rankings will be: Alcaraz 11,050 and Sinner 10,000.
With third-ranked Alexander Zverev (5,560 points), fourth-ranked Taylor Fritz (4,735 points) and fifth-ranked Novak Djokovic (4,580 points) so far behind, there is zero chance of any other player breaking into the top two anytime soon.
Sinner and Alcaraz won all four majors this year (as well as other tournaments), amassing huge point totals.
Sinner won the Australian Open. Alcaraz then defeated Sinner in an epic French Open final. Sinner got his revenge by defeating Alcaraz in the Wimbledon final. Alcaraz then defeated Sinner again to win the U.S. Open trophy.
To complicate matters further, Alcaraz will be the No. 1 seed in the finals — even though he won’t be ranked No. 1 going into that tournament.
This is because the final uses an alternative ranking system – the “Battle of Turin” – which only takes into account points accumulated during the calendar year.
Alcaraz leads Sinner by more than 1,000 points in the competition standings.
Sinner lost ground in both systems during his three-month layoff at the start of the year.
Sinner needs to win the ATP Finals and hope Alcaraz doesn’t make it to the year-end No. 1 spot for the second consecutive year.
Alcaraz needs to win three games in the finals to end 2025 ranked No. 1 for the second time in his career. In 2022, at just 19 years old, Alcaraz accomplished the feat, becoming the youngest player to finish first in a year.
In terms of WTA rankings, Sabalenka has secured the number one position at the end of the year.
Sinner, who comes into Turin on a tenth-match winning streak after winning in Vienna and Paris, will play on his favorite surface, the indoor hard courts, and will be expected to enjoy a huge backing from the home fans in the final.
Alcaraz, who heads to Italy after losing to Cameron Norrie in his opening match in Paris, has often struggled in indoor competition.
Auger-Aliassime, Musetti still trying to advance
Other players who have qualified for the finals (top eight of the tournament) so far include: Zverev, Djokovic, Ben Shelton, Fritz and Alex De Minaur.
Paris finalists Felix Auger-Aliassime and Lorenzo Musetti are still fighting for the final spot, with Musetti needing to win a race in Athens this week to move ahead of the Canadians and qualify for the elite event in their home country.
However, it’s unclear whether Djokovic plans to play a final at some point in his career, having said he is focused almost exclusively on the Grand Slams.
Djokovic, who withdrew from the final last year, will travel to Athens this week to compete.
If Djokovic withdraws, both Auger-Aliassime and Musetti will qualify for the final.
The final draw is scheduled to take place on Thursday, when it remains uncertain who the final qualifier will be.
